Location Strategies Podcasts

It's indisputable that New Hampshire Democrats leading the Legislature have tapped more resources to hold on to their newfound majority than the hungry Republican leadership anxious to topple them in November. But there are some silver linings, especially for Senate Republicans. The N.H. Senate Democratic Caucus and its 24 nominees-to-be for Senate seats raised a record $1.7 million, edging the $1.6 million it had set two years ago on the way to a 14-10 victory in 2006. By contrast, the Senate Republican Victory Fund and its GOP Senate slate have brought in less than half the Democrats' total – $758,152 – which falls slightly below its 2006 mark of $799,506. The Democratic lobby and their candidates have about $1 million in cash compared with about $500,000 for their GOP peers. "What is clear from these fundraising numbers is that there is no safe corner of the state for Republicans,'' N.H. Democratic Chairman Raymond Buckley said. "We are competitive everywhere.'' But Senate Republican Leader Ted Gatsas, of Manchester, said he has been heartened by the solid financial performance of his incumbents. There are some real signs of life among some GOP challengers who are nonetheless trailing Senate Democrats in cash brought in to date, Gatsas added. Here are some important cues to keep in mind behind the big numbers: • Fancy accounting: The Senate Democratic PAC and the Committee to Elect House Democrats claimed hefty "donations'' and "expenses'' to the N.H. Democratic Party. In the case of the House PAC, 40 percent of what has come in was from $78,400 to pay for use of the party's voter file. For the Senate Democrats, 30 percent of their money came from either a transfer from the flush 2006 campaign kitty ($66,085) and "in-kind'' donations of staff and assistance from the state party ($97,200). The Democratic PACs made the proper legal representation of those transfers. However, if I gave two bank accounts and I move $5,000 from one to the other back and forth a few times, my statement shows $15,000 in deposits, but there's no real income. This inflates the real cash value of both PACs. If you set all transfers aside, though, both Democratic groups raised more than their GOP counterparts. • Friendly deposits: On the Republican front, incumbents and challengers are anxiously awaiting checks to come from the GOP Victory Fund that Gatsas controls.The Senate Democratic Caucus has already enjoyed the benefit of cash coming in the opposite direction, incumbents donating to the Buckley-led PAC that acts in a coordinated fashion for its majority members. To date, 16 Democratic candidates or retiring incumbents have kicked in $58,488 for more than 10 percent of the money raised in this cycle. • Self-funded strength: State Rep. Bill Denley, R-Wakefield, turned heads with the $30,190 he has brought in, although $20,000 of it came out of his own pocket. Likewise challenger Christian Callahan, R-Portsmouth, raised $14,100, but $10,000 of that was in checks that bore his name. • Incumbency rules: Not a single challenger from either party raised more money than the incumbent. Senate Democrats raised an average of $82,041, while those challengers who turned in reports mustered only $19,953 apiece. The Senate GOP picture is smaller but similar, with the average senator raising $49,193 and facing a challenge that brought in only $13,097. As of late Friday afternoon, two days after the deadline to report, there were no reports from Republican challengers Kristie MacNeil, of Concord, or Jason Sakellar, of Manchester, or from former Ossipee Rep. Tim Babson and Kelly Remick Halldorson, of Dover, who are running for open seats. There were no reports from Senate Democratic challengers Sandy Aimlaw, of Hudson, Paul Dedak, of Pelham, or "Chaz'' Proulx, of Raymond, although state party officials confirmed Aimlaw had raised and spent only $805. State law doesn't require a report until a candidate spends $500 on his or her election. Here's the tale of the tape from the top of the state to the bottom. After each name are the two relevant numbers: how much cash each has brought in, followed by the all-important cash on hand. The incumbent is listed first if there is one; if not, it's the candidate who raised more money. • District 1: Berlin Republican Sen. Robert Gallus, $56,368, $51,101; Franconia Democratic Rep. Martha McLeod, $28,420, $27,335. • District 2: Plymouth Democratic Sen. Beth Reynolds, $68,242, $55,117; Sanbornton Rep. Bill Tobin, $3,790, $1,943; Haverhill Rep. Vernon Dingman III, $3,050, $848. • District 3: Sandwich Democrat "Bud'' Martin, $50,441, $35,648; Wakefield GOP Rep. Bill Denley, $30,190, $23,403; ex-Farmington Rep. Sam Cataldo, $1,813, $1,813; former Ossipee Rep. Tobin, no report. • District 4: Tilton Democratic Sen. Kathleen Sgambati, $64,273, $60,998; Laconia Republican City Councilor Gregory Knytych, $13,662, $9,008. • District 5: Plainfield Democratic Rep. Matthew Houde, $32,384, $25,875; former Andover Republican Rep. Jay Danforth, $3,950, $2,370. District 6: Barrington Democratic Sen. "Jackie'' Cilley, $42,019, $26,191; Rochester Republican Fenton Groen, $10,976, $4,515. District 7: Webster Democratic Sen. Harold Janeway, $36,135, $35,565; former Antrim GOP Rep. Larry Elliot, $4,225, $1,262; Henniker Republican "Andy'' Sanborn, $21,550, $9,081. • District 8: Lempster Republican Sen. Robert Odell, $40,284, $38,516; Acworth Democratic Rep. "Jay'' Phinizy, $16,518, $11,408. • District 9: Bedford Republican Sen. Sheila Roberge, $32,097, $31,850; Lyndeborough Democratic Rep. Michael Kaelin, $6,359, $4,957. • District 10: Keene Democratic Sen. Molly Kelly, $66,190, $55,172; former Keene Republican Sen. Tom Eaton, $56,196, $54,196. • District 11: Milford Republican Sen. Peter Bragdon, $31,979, $15,110; Greenville Democratic Rep. "Steve'' Spratt, $7,437, $5,698. • District 12: Hollis Democrat "Peggy" Gilmour, $28,086, $24,706; former Nashua GOP Rep. Paul LaFlamme Jr., $126,640, $14,672. • District 13: Nashua Democratic Rep. Bette Lasky, $29,768, $27,531; Nashua Republican real-estate agent Sandra Ziehm, $11,445, $10,664. • District 14: Londonderry Republican Rep. Sharon Carson, $21,322, $19,320; Hudson Democrat "Sandy'' Aimlaw, $805, $0. • District 15: Senate President Sylvia Larsen, D-Concord, $63,156, $39,541; Concord Republican Kristie MacNeil, no report. • District 16: Senate GOP Leader Ted Gatsas, of Manchester, $113,205, $88,603; Manchester Democratic lawyer "Bob'' Backus, $60,650, $57,157. • District 17: Raymond Republican "Jack'' Barnes, $17,375, $10,375; Raymond Democrat "Chaz'' Proulx, no report. • District 18: Manchester Democratic Sen. Betsi DeVries, $67,467, $54,692; Manchester Republican "Doug'' Kruse, $15,410, $13,927. • District 19: Derry Republican Sen. "Bob'' Letourneau, $67,915, $55,587; Windham Democrat Daphne Kenyon, $31,000, $28,338. • District 20: Manchester Democratic Sen. "Lou'' D'Allesandro, $243,672, $191,172; Manchester Republican Jason Sakellar, no report. • District 21: Durham Democrat Amanda Merrill, $40,067, $31,506; Dover Republican Kelly Remick Halldorson, no report. • District 22: Salem Republican Sen. Mike Downing, $33,798, $25,109; Pelham Democrat Paul Dadak, no report. • District 23: Exeter Democratic Sen. "Maggie'' Wood Hassan, $106,741, $69,822; Exeter Republican Rep. "Lee'' Quandt, $21,032, $16,571. • District 24: Portsmouth Democratic Sen. Martha Fuller Clark, $62,484, $49,876; Portsmouth Republican Christian Callahan, $14,100, $13,442. Tightening belts Gov. John Lynch gave department heads fiscally tight marching orders at the end of the week to start the process of writing the next two-year state budget, which will fall to the next elected Legislature and chief executive. This two-year cycle will begin July 1, 2009. State law compels agency heads to submit "maintenance'' budgets to keep in place existing services that by definition go up each year with the escalating costs for payroll, energy, health-care insurance and retirement. Lynch also asked the managers to offer a blueprint on the chance the economic downturn will extend into the next biennium. This would presume a 3 percent cut in current spending in 2010, and in 2011, a budget spending the same amount as this year. "Though the choices will not be easy, this budget process can be an opportunity to improve the way we serve New Hampshire's citizens,'' Lynch wrote. "With your creativity and innovation, I know we will meet the challenges of this upcoming budget cycle.'' Two weeks ago, Revenue Commissioner Phil Blatsos told Senate budget writers that his best guess was his taxes and fees would fall about $100 million shy for the current year ending next June 30. This forecast wasn't worse than what lawmakers had based their budget-adjusting actions on at the conclusion of the regular 2008 session in June. The state tobacco tax will go up 25 cents a pack in October if the existing levy fails to raise $50 million during the first three months of the year, not $48 million, as previously reported in this space. Spreading the wealth Remaining contenders are likely to seek the financial help of Nashua's two retiring senators, Democrats David Gottesman and Joseph Foster. As of a week ago, Gottesman had nearly $55,000 in his campaign account, while Foster had $21,821. Gottesman has already answered the call, having given $7,500 to Senate contenders, including $1,000 checks to incumbents Hassan, Kelly and Janeway and challengers Lasky and Martin. He gave $500 apiece to Senate President Larsen, Sens. D'Allesandro and Clark, and challengers McLeod and Kaelin. Foster has given $250 to Democratic challenger Backus. Coburn chooses candidate Jim Coburn, a 2006 gubernatorial nominee, will help his chosen GOP congressional candidate, Jennifer Horn, of Nashua, from a distance if she wins the Sept. 9 primary. Coburn said he'll leave in mid-September for more than a month to visit his late wife's family in Germany. The retired Windham businessman wouldn't speak ill of Horn's rivals while confirming his choice came down to Horn and Sen. Robert Clegg, R-Hudson. Coburn insisted the GOP winner would have an easier time knocking out first-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes than he had in the historic drubbing Lynch handed him two years ago. "I know all of the mistakes I made, and I am going to help her avoid those,'' Coburn said. He added that Horn's 10-point program for change impressed her. Also, Coburn said Horn's experience on Nashua talk radio probably has delivered higher name recognition and visibility than he had as a first-time candidate and one-term state representative. Coburn spent more than $1 million of his own money in hopes of buying that name ID, but to no avail. National security Republican 2nd Congressional District candidate Grant Bosse, of Hillsboro, plans to detail his national security proposals this week, likely Tuesday to coincide with a visit to BAE Systems in Nashua. Transportation controversies The House Transportation Committee will take up a small list of controversial issues when it meets Wednesday. The committee chairman, Rep. Jim Ryan, D-Franklin, reports they seek an update on the success of the new law aimed at doing away with immediate driver's license or registration suspension of infrequent violators in E-ZPass lanes. Ryan said he'll also discuss with state transportation officials the recent awarding of a multiyear contract for commuter buses to Boston following complaints by a losing bidder. Open dialogue The House Republican PAC has lined up the speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, Marco Rubio, as its guest star for an upcoming fundraiser. Officials with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's GO-PAC are credited with helping convince Rubio to make the trip. It's another sign of some improving relations between the two states, where officials often tangled in defense of their early primary contests. At no point in this battle did Secretary of State Bill Gardner get in the middle of Florida's bid for an early contest. Earlier this week, the House GOP began a series of weekly conference calls with their candidates to brainstorm ideas and hear from guest speakers. The Cheshire and Belknap county contingents got a special surprise last week when Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a vice presidential candidate, joined them. Advertising money In this sleepy primary season, the third-party ads in the Senate race have served to keep the airwaves busy. Last week's new entry was a radio buy from the national AFL-CIO's PAC attacking Republican U.S. Sen. John E. Sununu on health care, Social Security and benefits for veterans. This comes on the heels of a Service Employees International Union-linked advertising salvo at Sununu even more focused on health care. The fiscally conservative Americans for Prosperity Foundation made what one media outlet claimed was a $600,000 buy on radio and television to savage Democratic hopeful Jeanne Shaheen on energy. If you think that number is large, listen to the candidates themselves. As another federal campaign finance deadline approached Wednesday, Shaheen and Sununu made spirited appeals for more cash. "Seeking to bolster Jeanne Shaheen's campaign, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee headed by New York's other very liberal senator, Sen. Chuck Schumer, has pre-bought approximately $7.9 million of television ads to begin in September,'' Sununu wrote. "Yes, $7.9 million of ads to attack me!'' Shaheen had a similar urgent tone. "Your support is critical,'' she wrote. "John Sununu has over $3 million more cash on hand than we do. He has been accepting money from Big Oil companies and pharmaceutical companies for the past five years.'' Poll showings Shaheen had a good week, with two independent polls showing her holding a double-digit lead over Sununu a few weeks after a University of New Hampshire survey had found the race to be a dead heat. The American Research Group and the Rasmussen Reports found Shaheen opening large advantages among independent voters. Rasmussen's poll had Shaheen leading by 19 percentage points among women and 4 percentage points among men on the way to an overall 51 percent to 40 percent showing over Sununu. The outlook for Lynch was good, but much better in the Rasmussen survey, which found 54 percent gave him a good job rating while only 12 percent said it was unsatisfactory. Republican challenger Joe Kenney had pulled up in the latest ARG poll to 32 percent support compared with 58 percent for Lynch. Despite little money and even lower name recognition, ARG found Republicans giving Kenney the edge against the two-term Democrat Lynch, 64 percent to 28 percent. Lynch swamped Kenney among independents, 58 percent to 26 percent. ARG President Dick Bennett sees it as a continuing firming up of the Republican brand among longtime party members rather than any advance on Kenney's part. Lynch had more than 20 times the balance in his campaign checkbook as Kenney did, but the challenger took advantage of one legal benefit. Kenney has accepted the voluntary spending limit of $1.3 million for the primary and general election campaign. Those taking the limit can take individual donations of up to $5,000; those, like Lynch, who refuse are limited to $1,000, but only after they become official candidates for election. Almost half of Kenney's money has come in maxed-out $10,000 chunks: $5,000 for the primary and $5,000 for the general election from his wife, Asha; his mother, Elizabeth; and supporters from Troy, Mich., and McLean, Va. As he has done before, Lynch took advantage of the Mack truck-size, pre-candidacy loophole to great (read $$$$) success. There was no secret Lynch was running again, but he could still take $5,000 from individuals until he formally filed for re-election in early June. Lynch took earlier $5,000 checks from, among others, retiree Rawson Wood, of Center Harbor; Georgetown, Ky., executive Byron Boothe; Bain Capital investor Joshua Beckenstein; Kensington retiree Harlow Carpenter; Keystone Capital investor Kent Dauten; and New York lawyer Kirk Radke. Zing The primary for the right to face Democratic U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is now a full-contact sport entering the final weeks. Former Rep. Jeb Bradley kicked it off with a radio ad on Monday attacking the spending practices of primary rival John Stephen while Stephen was health and human services commissioner. Stephen hit back Tuesday with a tough TV spot calling Bradley "everything that is wrong with Congress'' for past opposition to offshore drilling and his support for earmark spending. Bradley shot back the next night during the final debate at Derryfield Country Club in Manchester, insisting while Stephen was a bureaucrat, he had lobbied Bradley for two congressional earmarks for New Hampshire. And then Bradley rolled in his own stinging TV spot at week's end that opens with Bradley's disclaimer, followed by a series of body-blow charges. "More spending, higher taxes, mismanagement, waste. The change we need? "No, only more of the same'' the Bradley ad announcer concludes. Backing Obama Barack Obama released support of a long list of veterans that included Nashua lawyer Mike Atkins, Rep. Steve Shurtleff, D-Concord, and Shaheen's husband, Bill. Medal of Honor recipient Capt. Paul "Bud'' Bucha came to the state on Obama's behalf, and joined with R.I. Sen. Jack Reed on a conference call with New Hampshire reporters. There's one similarity between Obama and Republican nominee-to-be John McCain on a major New Hampshire issue: Neither one has made any commitment to overcome federal VA opposition and seek a hospital or full-service medical care within New Hampshire. Reed said Obama has supported benefits for veterans far in excess of McCain, supports all veterans having access to comprehensive care, and dispatched his wife, Michelle, to visit with the families of soldiers at military bases across the U.S. But on new facilities, Reed said Obama would take his "lead from the VA.'' At a town hall-style meeting in June, McCain refused to answer the question when put to him by a supporter. read less